In few words, the game for the EU is practically over:
Everyone starts to claim his/her territory and refuses to pay for somebody else.
Miss Merkel is up front, since Germany has a substantial sum of funds to loose.
Many seem to think she is bluffing with her "no European shared liability as long as I live" approach, but it reflects the honest German position.
It will be a rough weekend.
Donnerstag, 28. Juni 2012
Mittwoch, 27. Juni 2012
Merkel: No European Shared Liability as long as she lives
I don't think, someone will kill Merkel right here, right now, exept perhaps somebody who happens to be the PM of Italy and threatens to resign if Eurobonds (those including the shared liability) will not be agreed upon.
By the way, there is a EU summit comming up tomorrow Thursday, June 28th.
Terrifying results have to expected considering the statements made by different parties previously.
By the way, there is a EU summit comming up tomorrow Thursday, June 28th.
Terrifying results have to expected considering the statements made by different parties previously.
Samstag, 23. Juni 2012
The Germans will pull out of the Euro
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard passed the clear statement which has been made at the last Euro Summit held in Rome between Italy, France, Spain & Germany:
In other words:
If any sort of bailout will be orchestrated in a way that it will cost Germany more money (hint: Germnay itself is bankrupt, just nobody realized yet), they will withdraw from the EURO currency.
If you ask me, there are two really big players in the room, it was just not shown that way:
Player one: France, who basically wants out of the EUR since it's destroying it's own industry.
Player two: Germany, who is not generally unpleased with the EURO but absolutely unwilling to pay any sort of funds to other countries, directly or indirectly. So, after all, they might have realized the time to pull out of the EURO is now.
It's going to be an interesting week.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shot down calls for full mobilisation of the eurozone's bail-out funds to halt the raging bond crisis in Spain and Italy, ignoring unprecedented pleas for action from the International Monetary Fund.
"The Germans are blackmailing the ECB," said one official. "They have more or less threatened to withdraw from the euro if the ECB puts one foot out of line."
In other words:
If any sort of bailout will be orchestrated in a way that it will cost Germany more money (hint: Germnay itself is bankrupt, just nobody realized yet), they will withdraw from the EURO currency.
If you ask me, there are two really big players in the room, it was just not shown that way:
Player one: France, who basically wants out of the EUR since it's destroying it's own industry.
Player two: Germany, who is not generally unpleased with the EURO but absolutely unwilling to pay any sort of funds to other countries, directly or indirectly. So, after all, they might have realized the time to pull out of the EURO is now.
It's going to be an interesting week.
Samstag, 16. Juni 2012
Greece vote - issue or not
There seems to be a great level of carefullness ahead of parliament votes in Greece:
Some EUROpean politicians postponed their visit to the G20 meeting in Mexico until after election results are given, bank employees all over the world are not allowed to take some days off.
To sum it up: Tension is rising.
If you aks me, Greece getting out of the EURO after an anti-EURO government will be elected would be not such a huge problem after all.
The real problem for the EURO lays somewhere totally different:
Spain - Problem No. 1
Italy - Problem No. 2
Both have something in common: They are just too big to bail. Spain received some rescue money under interesting terms, Italy will soon follow in my opinion. Once these two fronts brake, it's really over for Europe.
The continent will re-emerge, I'm sure of that, but in a completely different shape and without any supranational institution like the EU giving it's orders.
Some EUROpean politicians postponed their visit to the G20 meeting in Mexico until after election results are given, bank employees all over the world are not allowed to take some days off.
To sum it up: Tension is rising.
If you aks me, Greece getting out of the EURO after an anti-EURO government will be elected would be not such a huge problem after all.
The real problem for the EURO lays somewhere totally different:
Spain - Problem No. 1
Italy - Problem No. 2
Both have something in common: They are just too big to bail. Spain received some rescue money under interesting terms, Italy will soon follow in my opinion. Once these two fronts brake, it's really over for Europe.
The continent will re-emerge, I'm sure of that, but in a completely different shape and without any supranational institution like the EU giving it's orders.
Dienstag, 12. Juni 2012
The Spain rescue dilemma
Just during past weekend, Spain was "awarded" a multibillion EUR bailout in order to stabilize it's banks.
However, in my opinion, EU leaders made a big mistake, since they were in a special kind of dilemma:
Technically, Spain is just too big to bail. Therefore, it was necessary to orchestrate a special form of bailout which only concerned Spain's banks without putting too much pressure on the country itself, since the country actually is intended to be part of the ESM - plan, on the payers’ side.
It took exactly one day until another country, Greece, which had to be bailed out much earlier, asked for the same bailout term offered to spain, e.g. a renegotiation of bailout measures.
Here's the problem:
Pretty much every country will ask for better terms right now, since the dam of "austerity" has been broken just over one weekend.
After all, they are just going to print money. Or break up the EURO and go back to national currencies, which would be a much more intellegent move.
However, in my opinion, EU leaders made a big mistake, since they were in a special kind of dilemma:
Technically, Spain is just too big to bail. Therefore, it was necessary to orchestrate a special form of bailout which only concerned Spain's banks without putting too much pressure on the country itself, since the country actually is intended to be part of the ESM - plan, on the payers’ side.
It took exactly one day until another country, Greece, which had to be bailed out much earlier, asked for the same bailout term offered to spain, e.g. a renegotiation of bailout measures.
Here's the problem:
Pretty much every country will ask for better terms right now, since the dam of "austerity" has been broken just over one weekend.
After all, they are just going to print money. Or break up the EURO and go back to national currencies, which would be a much more intellegent move.
Freitag, 8. Juni 2012
The big picture
Let's try to put the current happenings in Europe aside.
There is one really big problem all over Europe and it will play out quite ugly I belive:
The Europeans, for the lack of a better word, have basically stopped reproducing:
However, some numbers are misleading:
You have to take out the reproduction rate of migrants, since they will be in trouble as well rather soon.
What's my prediction?
All this will change, here's why:
1. Each and every system of social security (the biggest scam ever, ask Bernie Madoff where he got his inspiration from) will fail
2. During hyperinflation, which is something we will see throughout the major industrialized nations in Europe, whether the Germans like it or not, every Social Security payment of some sort will probably have the value of a leaf of bread, if you are lucky
3. Public or private pensions - forget it, the bread algorythm appears here, too.
After a period of brief transition, the racial and cultural tension this will lead to, people are going to recognize something:
After all, there is only one system of social security that works and has ever worked in some sort of un- or underdeveloped countries: Children.
And boy will they breed.
There is one really big problem all over Europe and it will play out quite ugly I belive:
The Europeans, for the lack of a better word, have basically stopped reproducing:
However, some numbers are misleading:
You have to take out the reproduction rate of migrants, since they will be in trouble as well rather soon.
What's my prediction?
All this will change, here's why:
1. Each and every system of social security (the biggest scam ever, ask Bernie Madoff where he got his inspiration from) will fail
2. During hyperinflation, which is something we will see throughout the major industrialized nations in Europe, whether the Germans like it or not, every Social Security payment of some sort will probably have the value of a leaf of bread, if you are lucky
3. Public or private pensions - forget it, the bread algorythm appears here, too.
After a period of brief transition, the racial and cultural tension this will lead to, people are going to recognize something:
After all, there is only one system of social security that works and has ever worked in some sort of un- or underdeveloped countries: Children.
And boy will they breed.
Dienstag, 5. Juni 2012
a culture clash is coming
I already stated my point of view considering the coming tension with migrants all over Europe.
However, these are just problems which will occur in different European countries themselves.
Let's take a look at the bigger picture:
We have on one hand some countries being huge industrial powers but member of the Euro Zone with some sort of "germanic behaviour" (Germany, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands).
On the other hand, you have the roman countries being members in the Euro Zone while also representing huge industrial power (France, Italy).
Third, let's take a look at some other Roman countries which are muss less industrialized however are part of the Euro Zone (Spain, Portugal).
Fourth, the cradle of democracy, absolutely NO industrial power but member of the Euro Zone (Greece).
Fifth, some rather small contries rarely mentioned, but member of the Euro Zone (Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Greek part of Cyprus, Belgium).
To make a long story short:
This is never gonna work.
It is going to work even much less so, since many countries feel the Germans are trying to take over and stamp their rules of so called "fiscal responsibility at all other countries (which is totally idiotic by the way, since all these countries are more less in some sort of recession/depression baring huge public and private deficites). So called "austerity measures" are only going to make matters worst.
To say it in clear words: Basically, everybody among the Euro Zone except Germany tecnically requires some sort of high inflation / hyperinflation just to clean the system and receive a fresh start all over.
The Germans don't feel that way. They are right, considering their own country. They are terribly wrong considering all the other countries among the Euro zone. They are terribly wrong not to understand such circumstance and just mind their own business. The German Elites are doing a big mistake and it will cost them dearly.
However, these are just problems which will occur in different European countries themselves.
Let's take a look at the bigger picture:
We have on one hand some countries being huge industrial powers but member of the Euro Zone with some sort of "germanic behaviour" (Germany, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands).
On the other hand, you have the roman countries being members in the Euro Zone while also representing huge industrial power (France, Italy).
Third, let's take a look at some other Roman countries which are muss less industrialized however are part of the Euro Zone (Spain, Portugal).
Fourth, the cradle of democracy, absolutely NO industrial power but member of the Euro Zone (Greece).
Fifth, some rather small contries rarely mentioned, but member of the Euro Zone (Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Greek part of Cyprus, Belgium).
To make a long story short:
This is never gonna work.
It is going to work even much less so, since many countries feel the Germans are trying to take over and stamp their rules of so called "fiscal responsibility at all other countries (which is totally idiotic by the way, since all these countries are more less in some sort of recession/depression baring huge public and private deficites). So called "austerity measures" are only going to make matters worst.
To say it in clear words: Basically, everybody among the Euro Zone except Germany tecnically requires some sort of high inflation / hyperinflation just to clean the system and receive a fresh start all over.
The Germans don't feel that way. They are right, considering their own country. They are terribly wrong considering all the other countries among the Euro zone. They are terribly wrong not to understand such circumstance and just mind their own business. The German Elites are doing a big mistake and it will cost them dearly.
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